1930年代日本の農家負債―『農家負債に関する調査』のミクロデータ分析―
有本寛 （一橋大学）
藤栄剛 （滋賀大学）
仙田徹志 （京都大学）
要 旨
本報告では，『農家負債に関する調査』の個票データを用いて，1930年代日本の農家負債に関する基礎的な事実を，家計・負債レベルで定量的に検討した．検討の結果，負債の用途は，階層によって異なっており，高収入層や自作農は生産・投資目的で借り入れるのに対して，低収入層は消費目的の負債が多かった．金利等の融資条件は，借り手の階層や負債の属性による違いはなく，貸し手間の差が大きかった．同時に，収入や資産に乏しい家計は，銀行を中心に各借入先からの借り入れ確率が低い傾向にあることから，貸し手と借り手のマッチングは融資条件よりもアクセスで調整され，信用制約があった可能性が示唆される．また，頼母子講のなかでも過半を占めた「親有り講」は，特定の「親」の生産・投資目的の資金調達を社会的関係のなかで支援する性質を持ち，現代のソーシャル・ファンドに類似した特徴を持っていたといえる．
Motoi Kusadokoro (Tokyo University of
Agriculture and Technology)
Takeshi Maru (Hitotsubashi University)
Masanori Takashima (Hitotsubashi University)
Abstract
This paper analyzes asset accumulation behavior of rural households using panel data extracted from the survey of farm household economy from 1931 to 1941 conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. The years we are concerned fall under the reconstruction period following the Showa Depression. During this period, farm households were confronted with the problem how they should allocate their farm surplus to each asset. The result shows that the operational land holding size was converging to the size around 2 cho (approximately 19,835m2), as the previous literature indicated. Households mainly adjusted their operational farm size in response to changes in the household structure; however the land ownership structure did not affect the operational size. Households placed a greater emphasis on the accumulation of relatively high-liquid assets such as cash, quasi-money, animals, and in-kind stocks. In other words, they did not actively invest in fixed assets. Their choice indicates the existence of precautionary saving motive.
川崎賢太郎 （農林水産政策研究所）
要 旨
農産物の品質を評価するため、多くの国で等級制度が用いられている。しかし等級の決定要因に関する実証分析例は少ない。本研究では小麦農家のパネルデータを用いて、等級の決定要因を分析した。方法論的には、被説明変数となる等級が、Ordered（1 等、2 等、規格外の間には明確な序列関係がある）かつFractional（等級シェアは0〜1 の値で計測される）という特徴を有することを考慮し、こうした場合に適した推計方法を開発した。分析の結果、農薬、等級間価格差、気象条件等が特に等級に大きな影響を与えていることを確認した。また等級の変化が農家経済に与える影響を評価するため、農薬などの各種要因が等級の変化を通じて農家収入に与える影響（品質効果）と、単収の変化を通じて農家収入に与える影響（数量効果）を比較したところ、品質効果は数量効果と比べ、決して無視できない大きさであることがわかった。
Who Purchases Weather Index Insurance?: A Pilot Scheme in Rural Zambia
Ken Miura (Hitotsubashi University)
Takeshi Sakurai (Hitotsubashi University)
Abstract
Index insurance, basing insurance payouts on an officially observable index highly correlated with crop yield, has been expected a promising way to insulate the vulnerable against weather shocks. However, previous studies have reported lower take-up rates than expected. Although they also have pointed out impediments to insurance take-ups such as liquidity constraints, further investigation is required to understand them fully. One of potential barriers, which have not been tackled well, is ex ante self-insurance mechanisms employed by farmers for precautionary purpose. To examine the relationship between the mechanism and insurance demand, this paper utilizes data for two years from a pilot scheme selling index insurance based on rainfall amounts in rural Zambia. In the scheme, most of the farmers purchased too small amounts of the rainfall index insurance contract to completely shield them from weather risk, although the take-up rates are extremely high (more than 90% in both years). First, this paper presents descriptive evidence on the determinants of rural farmers' demand for weather index insurance. We show that impediments to insurance purchases in the scheme are (1) risk aversion, (2) limited trust in insurance provider, and (3) poor understanding of the insurance contract, all of which are consistent with findings from previous literature. Then, we discuss the relationship with small livestock saving, one of farmers' essential self-insurance mechanisms in the study site. Even after controlling wealth levels, we find a concave relationship among them, suggesting that farmers in the site have strong demand for further insulating them against weather risks. Given the empirical result, we speculate that only traditional self-insurance mechanisms are not enough to reach the optimal level of precautionary savings.
Internal Migration Patterns by Skill and Income Inequality in Vietnam
Nguyen Thi Thinh (Kyushu University)
Hisamitsu Saito (Kyushu University)
Yoko Saito (Kyushu University)
Hiroshi Isoda (Kyushu University)
Shoichi Ito (Kyushu University)
Abstract
Vietnam has experienced a significant rise in internal migration over the last decade. The role in economic development of rural out-migration and remittances to home communities has attracted increasing research and policy attention. Little attention, however, has been paid to the manner in which household skills affect the policy and community influences on migration decisions. In the present study, we use Vietnamese panel data on household income and remittances to examine the impacts of household and community characteristics on skilled and unskilled migration decisions. Our results suggest that attracting off-farm employment opportunities to, and providing education in, rural regions are effective in expanding the probability of skilled migration and reducing the probability of unskilled migration. Such polices therefore will improve income equality while boosting economic growth in both rural and urban areas.
Takeshi Aida (University of Tokyo)
Abstract
This paper investigates the effect of social capital between irrigation canal head-enders and tail-enders on their water allocation problem. Although social capital is considered to be an instrument for common pool resource management, a consensus has not been reached on its effect among heterogeneous players. In irrigation management, the water allocation problem between head-enders and tail-enders is one of these serious problems. Using unique natural and artefactual field experiment data as well as general household survey data collected by JICA, this study finds that social capital, especially trust toward their tail-enders, has a significantly positive effect on satisfaction with water usage among head-enders. Considering the fact that the incentive structure of irrigation water allocation for head-enders closely resembles that in the dictator and trust games, this finding also supports the validity of experimentally measured social capital. In addition, this study deals with the simultaneity bias between satisfaction level and experimentally measured social capital, and finds that OLS estimators are downward biased, which is consistent with the hypothesis that scarcity of resources enhances the level of social capital.
System of Rice Intensification (SRI)の採用が世帯に与える影響―インドネシア農村の事例
高橋和志 （アジア経済研究所）
要 旨
SRI は乳苗移植、苗1‐2 本植、疎植栽培、間断冠水などを特徴とする稲作技術であり、単収を劇的に増加させると言われている。ただし、その増収効果については、未だ科学的根拠に乏しく、SRI が技術的に本当に優れているかどうか科学者でも見解が割れている。これまでのSRI 農法をめぐる議論は収量に関するものが主であり、SRI を採用することで、農家の所得やその他の厚生水準が改善するかいなかは、ほとんど議論されてこなかった。本研究では、2009 年にインドネシアで集められたデータを用い、SRI の家計や就学への効果について検証する。主な結果として、(1) SRI 採用により、単位当たり稲作収量や稲作所得は非採用時と比べて60％以上有意に増加するが、同時に農業労働投入時間が増えるため、稲作以外の非農業労働収入を減らす、(2) 稲作所得上昇と非農業所得減少により効果が相殺され、家計総所得はSRI を採用している農家と採用していない農家では統計的に有意な差がなくなる、（3）家庭内労働需要が増えることで、子どもが学校に通えず、農業の手伝いを強いられることが懸念されたが、そうした負の影響は見当たらない、ことが判明した。