髙橋昂也* （九州大学）
前田幸嗣 （九州大学）
要 旨
本報告の目的は、習慣形成効果を考慮したうえで、わが国における牛肉の需要構造を計量経済学的に明らかにすることである。具体的には、習慣形成効果を明示的に含まないモデルと、Muellbauer and Pashardes(1992)らが開発した、近視眼的習慣形成モデルおよび合理的習慣形成モデルの３つのモデルを用いて分析を行う。
分析の結果、第１に、以上３つのモデルのうち、合理的習慣形成モデルの統計的な適合度が最も高いこと、第２に、従来の研究結果と異なり、輸入牛肉は乳用牛肉と代替関係にあり、牛肉の関税削減はわが国の乳用牛肉生産に大きな影響を与える可能性が高いことが明らかになった。
放射性物質の飛散による風評被害の計測： 2010年産コメ購買行動におけるフレーミング効果
水田岳志* （慶応大学/一橋大学）
乾友彦 （日本大学）
松浦寿幸 （慶応大学）
要 旨
本研究では首都圏の小売店におけるコメ購買データ（POSデータ）を用い、2011年3月に発生した東日本大震災に伴う放射性物質の飛散情報が、2010年産米の購買行動に与えた影響を実証的に検討する。
本研究の着眼点は、①2011年3月時点で流通していたコメは2010年産（2010年10月前後に収穫）であるため、その品質は2011年3月に飛散した放射性物質の影響を受けず、冷静に考えれば、消費者にとって実質的に同じ選択なのだが、地震後に地震・津波・福島原発事故・放射性物質の飛散情報が集中的に報道された結果、「福島県産のコメはちょっと・・」と消費者の購買行動が変化したのではないか（フレーミング効果, Tversky and Kahneman, 1981）、という素朴な疑問、②福島県を中心とする放射性物質の飛散は誰にも予期できない外生的な事象であった（自然実験）、以上の2点である。
第一に、福島県産コメをtreatment group, その他の産地のコメをcontrol groupとしたDifference
in Differences (Card and Krueger 1994; Angrist and Pischke 2008)により、コメ購買行動においてFukushima Effects（3月11日以降福島県産のコメを買い控える）が発生したかを検討する。
第二に、都道府県別の集計データからNew
Empirical IOの基本的な分析道具であるランダム係数ロジットモデル（Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes 1995, Nevo 2000, Nevo 2001）を推計し、その推計結果として得られる構造パラメータから、消費者余剰（CS）の分布を計測する。
ここで、商品属性にはコメの食味、その価格に加えて、産地の環境放射線量を導入しており、上記の構造パラメータを用いて、仮に環境放射線量がゼロであった場合の消費者余剰の分布を逆算するという非現実仮想実験を行うことができる。非現実仮想実験により、放射性物質の飛散の有無による消費者余剰の分布の比較(等価変分の計測)を通して、放射性物質の飛散によるコメ購買行動の影響を定量的に把握する。
現在、推計中である．
中国江蘇省における農地の流動化―土地株式合作制度による取引費用の節減―
伊藤順一* （京都大学）
要 旨
中国における農地貸借市場の発展は，農業労働力の農外への流出によって，その端緒が開かれ，農地制度改革とりわけ請負経営権の強化がそれを後押ししてきた。本研究ではこうした先行研究の主張を支持しながらも，農地の流動化を促す第３の要因として，貸借を仲介する組織の役割に注目した。実証分析の結果は，土地株式合作社が農地の流動化とその集積および農家以外の経営体の農業参入に，多大な貢献をなしていること示唆している。合作社が貸借を仲介することで取引費用が節減され，流動化が急速に進行したのである。これは集団的土地所有という社会主義の遺制を実質的に無効にする制度の導入により，農民が躊躇なく利用権を譲渡する条件が整った結果にほかならない。
Macroeconomic Policy with Financial Market Stability: The Case of Japan's Early 19th Century
Yasuo Takatsuki* (Kobe University)
Masahiko Shibamoto (Kobe University)
Abstract
Through the Tokugawa period (1603-1867), the Shogunate often intervened in the Osaka market to keep the rice price stable. Since the Shogunate did not have enough funds to finance the market intervention, he should borrow money from the financial intermediaries to finance the market intervention (ex. Buying operation). This paper explores the implications on the market interventions as a tool of the macroeconomic policy in Japan's early 19th century. Some anecdotal evidences support the view that, in the wake of the policy failure in 1761, the Shogunate recognized the importance of the financial market stability as well as the rice price stability in implementing the market interventions. By using high-frequency event study approach, we find that, while the 'actual' interventions before October 1806 did not help the rice market to boost up, the Shogunate was successful to improve the rice exchange market by the 'oral' interventions after October 1806. Finally, the Shogunate could achieve the two goals: 'macroeconomic stability' and 'financial market stability' in the early 19th century.
Abolishing User Fees, Fertility Choice, and Educational Attainment
Shinsuke Tanaka (Tufts University)
Takahiro Ito* (Kobe University)
Abstract
This study examines the effect of abolishing user fees from health services on fertility and educational attainment as a test of the quantity-quality tradeoff model. Exploiting sudden improvements in nutritional status among South African children as an exogenous decline in price of quality investments, we document evidence consistent with the model that parents substitute fertility and increase educational investments. The absence of treatment effects among children not subject to the health policy eliminates channels through heterogeneous preexisting trends or unobserved concurrent changes. Overall, our findings highlight a health policy as a motivating force underlying the demographic transition and economic growth.
Takashi Kurosaki* (Hitotsubashi
University)
Abu Shonchoy (Institute of Developing Economies)
Abstract
The mismatch between credit repayments and income seasonality implies a challenge for microfinance institutions (MFIs) working in developing countries. For instance in northern Bangladesh, income and consumption downfalls during the lean season after the transplanting of major paddy crops are a serious threat to the household economy. Poor landless agricultural wage laborers suffer the most due to this seasonality as they face difficulty to smooth their consumption. In designing microcredit products, MFIs do not usually provide any flexibility or seasonal adjustment during the lean season, however. This is mainly because MFIs are afraid of the possibility that such flexibility might break the repayment discipline of borrowers, resulting in higher default rates. We thus conducted a randomized controlled trial in 2011-12 in northern Bangladesh to test empirically whether seasonality adjusted flexible microcredit leads to an increase in repayment problems for MFIs and whether it can increase and stabilize consumption of borrower households. Our results suggest no statistically discernible difference among the treatment arms in case of default, overdue amount, or repayment frequency. On the other hand, we find no positive impact of the repayment flexibility on immediate food consumption during the period of seasonality. After a year of initial intervention, however, we start to see positive changes in the food intake during the lean season. Our preliminary results are in favor of seasonality adjusted flexible design of microcredit.
Spatial vs. Social Network Effects in Risk Sharing
Takeshi Aida* (University of Tokyo)
Abstract
Although much research has been conducted on informal consumption smoothing within either village or social clusters such as family and friends, few studies compare the effects of these spatial and social networks. Employing spatial panel econometric models, this study extends the empirical test of full risk sharing hypothesis to incorporate spatial and social network effects and quantifies the diffusion of income shocks in each network. The estimation results from the household survey data in the southern Sri Lanka show that consumption smoothing in spatial network performs better than in social network in the sense that income shocks defuse better among neighboring households. This study also shows the limitation of the conventional test when it is regarded as a special case of a spatial econometric model.
Kei Kajisa* (Aoyama Gakuin University)
Val O. Pede (International Rice Research Institute)
Abstract
Artefactual field experiment, network mapping, spatial econometrics, and household survey are combined in a single study to investigate peer effects on social behaviors. The dictator and public goods games are conducted among irrigated and non-irrigated farmers in the Philippines. We draw network maps to identify social and economic distance among the sample farmers. The networks of kinship, social or economic gathering, and social or economic transactions are examined. The results show that social behaviors tend to show stronger interdependence in the social networks than in the economic networks in the irrigated area.