北島浩三* （名古屋大学大学院経済学研究科博士後期課程）
要 旨
本報告では先進国を中心に兼業化が進展する中、農家は兼業化が進むと離農するのかという点について分析する。先行研究ではGoetz and Debertin (2001)等で兼業の影響によって農家は離農するのかという点について分析が行われた。実証的には兼業の影響として1）所得が安定し離農を抑える、2）農外労働にシフトし離農するという2つの場合があることが分かった。しかし兼業の影響として2つの場合があると分かったもののどのような場合に離農し、また離農しないのかについては何も明らかになっていない。本報告では兼業の影響によって農家が離農する場合としない場合があることを手掛かりにそれを分ける要因を主に理論的に解明する。分析の結果「主たる農業者一人から構成される農家」、「主従二人の農業者から構成される農家」ともに農家固有正規雇用プレミアム（FSP）と移動費用（通勤費用（CC）、引っ越し費用（MC））の大小を比較して離農するかを決めていると分かった。ただし帰属地代が得られなくかつ小さい農地の場合の離農・離村条件は「主たる農業者一人から構成される農家」、「主従二人の農業者から構成される農家」とでは異なることが分かった。
Agricultural Input Subsidies in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Tanzania
Tamahi Kato-Yamauchi* (Kyoto University/Tokyo University of Foreign Studies, from April 2017)
Abstract
The paper
investigates the design, implementation and impacts of the market-smart input
subsidy (NAIVS) in Tanzania’s Ruvuma Region.
The research
uses a mixed-methods approach, where quantitative data analysis is complemented
by qualitative research. Using four waves of household panel data, I found that
voucher receipt had no statistically significant impact on maize yields, income
poverty or the household assets owned by recipient households. The qualitative
research finds that this was due to flaws in NAIVS’s design and in its
implementation. Weak institutional capacity was found in voucher management,
especially at the lower level of government: a substantial number of vouchers
went missing; inputs and vouchers were delivered late most years; and vouchers
were resold by farmers.
Due to an increase in real input
prices, the ‘top-up’ payment required for voucher use was increased, which made
it difficult for poor farmers to access the subsidy. In practice, the input
vouchers were obtained by elites: households with elected positions in the
villages; wealthier households; and those households who were already using
improved inputs prior to NAIVS. It contributed to national food security;
however, because of the spill-over effects which brought a higher increase ratio
in input use among non-recipient than recipient households, the observed impact
on maize yields cannot be attributed to NAIVS. Because of the leakage to
wealthier farmers and fraud, it did not ensure household food security for poor
farmers.
The paper reveals that studies of input subsidy
programmes require not only economic analysis but also social and political
analysis. Such studies would require the use of a new theory of change, which
uses economic analysis but places social and political analysis at the
forefront, and in which a mixed-methods approach must be used.
The Impact of Microcredits on the Technology Adoption and Productivity of Rice Cultivation: The Case of BRAC Program in Tanzania
Eustadius Francis Magezi* (Tokyo
University of Agriculture)
Yuko Nakano (University of Tsukuba)
Abstract
Yuya Kudo* (Institute of Developing Economies)
Abstract
Levirate marriage, whereby a widow is inherited by male relatives of her deceased husband, has anecdotally been viewed as informal insurance for widows who have limited property rights. This study investigates why this widespread practice in sub-Saharan Africa has recently been disappearing. A developed game-theoretic analysis reveals that levirate marriage arises as a pure strategy subgame perfect equilibrium when a husband's clan desires to keep children of the deceased within its extended family and widows have limited independent livelihood means. Female empowerment renders levirate marriage redundant because it increases widows' reservation utility. HIV/AIDS also discourages a husband's clan from inheriting a widow who loses her husband to HIV/AIDS, reducing her remarriage prospects and thus, reservation utility because she is likely to be HIV positive. Consequently, widows' welfare tends to decline (increase) in step with the deterioration of levirate marriage driven by HIV/AIDS (female empowerment). By exploiting long-term household panel data drawn from rural Tanzania and testing multiple theoretical predictions relevant to widows' welfare and women's fertility, this study finds that HIV/AIDS is primarily responsible for the deterioration of levirate marriage. Young widows in Africa may need some form of social protection against the influence of HIV/AIDS.
Exploitation of Trafficked Adolescents: Survey Evidence from Sex Workers in Bangladesh
Masahiro Shoji* (Seijo
University)
Kenmei Tsubota (Institute of Developing Economies)
Abstract
A number of adolescents in developing countries engage in sex work due to poverty, lack of alternative job opportunities, and victimization of human trafficking. While empirical studies on sex workers have been increasing, it is not well known to what extent the living standard of trafficked sex workers differs from that of non-trafficked workers. The goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of entering sex work through human trafficking on the wage of adolescent sex workers in Bangladesh. Using the frequency of natural disasters occurred in the hometown of sex workers for instrumental variable, we find that entering sex industry through the human trafficking significantly decreases the wage of sex workers. This result cannot be explained by poor quantity/quality of service, high risk of sexually transmitted diseases, or non-pecuniary support. It is rather consistent with the hypothesis that the victims are exploited by their owner; trafficked workers are more likely to be a victim of violence by senior workers and brokers, who are owners of the victims.
Subjective Well-Being and Objective Poverty Indices: Evidence from Panel Data in South Africa
Takeshi Aida* (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)
Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between subjective well-being and objective poverty indices: income poverty and multidimensional poverty. By applying the Blow-up and Cluster estimation of fixed effects ordered logit model (Baetschmann et al. 2015) to a panel data collected in South Africa, this study finds that both income and multidimensional poverty indices significantly affect subjective well-being, though the large part of the variation cannot be explained by these indices or other conventional factors. This study also evaluates the relative importance of these objective poverty indices in terms of subjective well-being.
How Quickly Does a New Market Emerge? A Case of Quality Local Rice in Ghana
Towa Tachibana* (Chiba University)
Abstract